10-Year Treasury Yield
he 10-year Treasury yield rose again on Friday, hovering near a seven-month high. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was 4 basis points higher at 4.626%. The 10-year rate hit a high of 4.641% in the previous session, hitting its highest level since May. The 2-year Treasury was fractionally lower at 4.318%..
Chicago Fed Estate Mfg index
Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased in November 2024. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.12 in November from –0.50 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from October, but all four categories made negative contributions in November. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.31 in November from –0.27 in October.
Durable Goods Ordes
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Pull Back More Than Expected In November 2024.New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods slumped by much more than expected in the month of November, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday. The report said durable goods orders tumbled by 1.1 percent in November after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.8 percent in October. Economists had expected durable goods orders to fall by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.3 percent increase that had been reported for the previous month. The bigger than expected decrease by durable goods orders came amid a sharp pullback by orders for transportation equipment, which plunged by 2.9 percent in November after jumping by 1.8 percent in October.
Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence dented by stock-market worries and threat of Trump tariffs. Consumer-confidence index falls to a three-month low. A postelection pop in consumer confidence fizzled at the end of the year owing to worries about the U.S. stock market and a potentially higher cost of living as a result of new tariffs. The index of consumer confidence dropped 8.1 points to a three-month low of 104.7 in December, the privately run Conference Board said Monday.
New Home Sales
The Commerce Department said new home sales surged by 5.9 percent to an annual rate of 664,000 in November after plunging by 14.8 percent to a revised rate of 627,000 in October. Economists had expected new home sales to spike by 6.6 percent to an annual rate of 650,000 compared to the rate of 610,000 originally reported for the previous month. U.S. New Home Sales Show Significant Rebound In November 2024. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rebounded in November after being depressed by hurricanes in the prior month, but rising mortgage rates could hamper sales next year.
US Dollar - Currencies
U.S. dollar set for 7% annual gain, yen faces fourth year of losses. Global stocks, the dollar and some Treasury yields looked set to wrap up Christmas week on Friday with minor retracements of broad up-trends, succumbing to a dearth of interest and participation heading into the last weekend of the year. Wall Street's main indexes opened lower, dampening an upbeat holiday-shortened week that started out looking like a classic "Santa Claus" rally was unfolding. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up slightly but hovered below a near-eight-month high reached Thursday, while shorter-term Treasury yields.
Geopolitical Risk
South Korea’s lawmakers on Friday voted to impeach acting President Han Duck-soo, in the second head-of-state ousting this month after a short-lived martial decree on Dec. 3.
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Christmas 2024
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Hedging - Gold
Low holiday trading volume in the final week of 2024 is expected to keep gold prices contained within their narrow range, according to some market analysts. The precious metal remains range-bound heading into the weekend, even as bond yields stay elevated above 4.6%. Spot gold futures last traded at $2,618.30 an ounce, down 0.57% on the day. Meanwhile, gold prices are down 0.18% for the week.
Jobless Claims
Jobless claims dip 1,000 to 219,000 in week before Xmas. Initial U.S. jobless claims drop 1,000 to 219,000 in week ended Dec. 21. Below forecast. Continuing jobless claims rise 46,000 to 1.91 million. Highest since 2018 if pandemic period excluded.
Oil - Commodity
Oil rose in thin end-of-year trading, with investors assessing the outlook for 2025 while tracking developments in the Middle East.. West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.4% to settle near $71 a barrel, while Brent topped $74. A gauge of 10-day volatility for WTI ebbed to the lowest since July.
Money Supply
U.S. M2 money supply hadn't done this in nine decades. Though it's typically an off-the-radar economic data point, U.S. money supply has been making waves on Wall Street of late. The two most-common measures of U.S. money supply are M1 and M2. The former accounts for cash and coins in circulation, along with travelers' checks and demand deposits from a checking account. The best way to think about M1 is cash that can be spent at a moment's notice. Meanwhile, M2 money supply takes everything from M1 and adds in money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) below $100,000. This is still money that consumers have access to and can spend, but it requires more effort to get to. It's also the specific money supply measure that's the cause of concern for Wall Street. The reason M2 is typically an off-the-radar data point is because U.S. money supply had been growing without notable disruption for nine decades. As the U.S. economy expands over time, it's not a surprise that more capital has been needed to facilitate transactions. A steadily rising money supply is indicative of an economy with a solid foundation.
Fed Balance Sheet
Level Prior $6.896 T, Actual $6.898 T. Total Assets - W/W Prior $-9.313 B Actual $1.658 B Reserve Bank Credit - W/W Prior $-13.686 B, Actual $-4.330 B.
Mortgage Rates
U.S. mortgage rates jumped to the highest level in five months as the year drew to a close. In the last full week of 2024, the 30-year mortgage rate rose to the highest level since mid-July, averaging 6.85% as of December 26, according to data released by Freddie Mac Mortgage rates jump, finish the year at a five-month high. Mortgage rates jump 13 basis points in the last week of 2024, Freddie Mac says
Intal Trade in Goods
U.S. trade deficit is rising again. U.S. reliance on imports puts trade gap near all-time high. The U.S. trade deficit in goods rose nearly 5% in November and clung near an all-time high — and there’s no reason to expect the gap to shrink much early in the new term of President-elect Donald Trump. The trade gap widened to $102.9 billion in November from $98.3 billion in the prior month, the government said Friday.
Retail Inventories
Retail Inventories. November Level: Estimated at $827.5 billion, a 0.3% increase from October and a 7.2% increase from November 2023. October Estimate: Unchanged at +0.2%. Retail inventories ex autos rose 0.6% vs 0.3% last month (was 0.1%)
Wholesale Inventories Adv
US Wholesale inventories for November -0.2% vs +0.2% estimate. Wholesale Inventories November Level: Estimated at $901.6 billion, a 0.2% decrease from October and a 0.9% increase from November 2023. October Revision: Growth revised down from +0.2% to +0.1%.
S&P 500 Index - Week Performance
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