Week 49-2022 | Rating

Week 49-2022 | Chart

Week 49-2022 | News

10-Year Treasury Yield

U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Tuesday, giving back some of the gains seen in the previous session sparked by economic data that suggested the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates for longer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell by roughly 5 basis points to trade at 3.553%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by around 3 basis points to 4.364%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point equals 0.01%.

Factory Orders

U.S. factory orders beat expectations in October. New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods increased more than expected in October amid strong gains in demand for machinery and a range of other goods, which could allay concerns of a sharp slowdown in manufacturing. The Commerce Department said on Monday that factory orders jumped 1.0% after rising 0.3% in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast orders advancing 0.7%. Orders shot up 12.8% on a year-on-year basis in October.

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PMI Composite Final

The S&P Global US Composite PMI dropped to 46.3 in November 2022 from 48.2 in the previous month, signaling the sharpest pace of contraction in the private sector since August and among the quickest since 2009, a preliminary estimate showed. New orders fell the most since the initial pandemic wave in May 2020 as the impact of high inflation and rising borrowing costs weighed on demand, while the pace of job creation was only marginal. On the price front, input cost inflation softened for the sixth month running to the lowest since December 2020, but remained high overall, and selling price inflation eased to an over two-year low. Nonetheless, business expectations improved in November, amid improvements in supply chain stability and hopes of greater client demand following new product launches.

MBA Purchase Applications

Lower mortgage rates are pulling some current homeowners back to the refinance market, but not enough to offset the drop in demand from homebuyers. Mortgage application volume fell 1.9% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 6.41% from 6.49%, with points decreasing to 0.63 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That is 73 basis points lower than it was a month ago but still more than three full percentage points higher than it was a year ago. Applications to refinance a home loan rose 5% for the week but were still 86% lower than the same week one year ago. There are still precious few current borrowers who can benefit from a refinance at today’s higher interest rates. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 28.7% of total applications from 26.1% the previous week. Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 3% for the week and were 40% lower than the same week one year ago. The average loan size for homebuyer applications decreased to $387,300 — its lowest level since January 2021, which is consistent with slightly stronger government applications and a rapidly cooling home-price environment, according to Kan. Mortgage rates haven’t moved much this week, with no significant economic news making headlines. The next big shift will likely come next week, with the much-anticipated monthly read on inflation.

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Jobless Claims

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PPI

Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in November, more than expected, despite hopes that inflation is cooling. The producer index, a measure of what companies get for their products in the pipeline, increased 0.3% for the month and 7.4% from a year ago. A 38% surge in wholesale vegetable prices helped push up the food index by 3.3%, offsetting an identical 3.3% decline in energy costs. Markets now will turn their attention to the more closely watched consumer price index, which is due out Tuesday morning. Wholesale prices rose more than expected in November as food prices surged, dampening hopes that inflation could be headed lower, the Labor Department reported Friday. The producer price index, a measure of what companies get for their products in the pipeline, increased 0.3% for the month and 7.4% from a year ago, which was the slowest 12-month pace since May 2021. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.2% gain. Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up 0.4%, also against a 0.2% estimate. Core PPI was up 6.2% from a year ago, compared to 6.6% in October. This was the third month in a row that headline PPI increased 0.3%. On an annual basis, the increase represents a decline from the 11.7% peak hit in March, but is still well ahead of the pre-pandemic pace at least going back to 2010. The increase came despite a 3.3% decline in final demand energy costs. That was offset by an identical 3.3% increase in the food index. The trade index rose 0.7%, while transportation and warehousing fell 0.9%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI increased 0.3% from a month ago and was up 4.9% on an annual basis, the lowest since April 2021.

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