ISM Service - Non Manufacturing Index
In June 2021, the Services PMI® registered 60.1 percent, a 3.9-percentage point decrease compared to the May figure of 64 percent. This reading indicates the services sector grew for the 13th consecutive month after two months of contraction and 122 months of growth before that.
PMI Composite Final
TUESDAY 06 JULY 2021 3:34 PM. PMI: US services industry extends resurgence into June. The US services industry extended its resurgence from the troughs of the Covid pandemic into June, according to a closely watched business survey released today. The IHS Markit US Services PMI reached 64.6 in June, the third highest since the survey began and only behind May and April’s readings of this year. A reading above 50 indicates businesses reported an expansion in activity.
FOMC Minutes
Federal Reserve officials talked tapering at their most recent meeting, but few seemed in a rush to get the process going, according to minutes released Wednesday july 7, 2021. The Federal Open Market Committee’s June 15-16 meeting summary provided only a few new glimpses into talks about when the central bank should begin reducing the pace of its bond purchases. Some members indicated that the economic recovery was proceeding faster than expected and was being accompanied by an outsized rise in inflation, both making the case for taking the Fed’s foot off the policy pedal. However, the prevailing mindset was that there should be no rush and markets must be well prepared for any shifts. Most members agreed, according to the minutes, that the economy had yet to meet the “substantial further progress” benchmark the Fed has set out for any significant shifts in policy. The Federal Reserve’s policymaking group kept its benchmark rate anchored in a range between 0% and 0.25%. That was according to market expectations. Fed officials kept a patient tone in terms of tightening monetary policy, minutes show.
Mortgage Applications
Mortgage demand fell for the second week in a row, as low inventory and high home prices continue to weigh on the housing market. Mortgage applications decreased 1.8% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index, falling to the lowest level since the beginning of 2020, before the coronavirus pandemic started to take a toll on the economy. Both refinance and purchase applications took a hit, even as mortgage rates slipped. Mortgage applications to refinance a home dropped 2% for the week and were 8% lower than a year ago. Refinance applications have trended lower than 2020 levels for the past four months, according to the MBA. Home purchase applications dropped 1% for the week and came in 14% lower than a year ago.
Jobless
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JOLTS
3.6 million Americans quit their jobs in May, and there's one job opening for every unemployed worker. There's one worker per job opening as of May 2021.The latest JOLTS report showed quits were still high, but not as high as the 20-year record in April. Quits varied by industry. 859,000 workers in trade, transportation, and utilities left their jobs. As the economy continues its strange reopening trajectory, May once again saw workers quitting in droves. The latest data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that 3.6 million workers opted to leave their jobs, a quit rate of 2.5%. That's lower than April's 20-year high, where just shy of 4 million workers left their jobs. Even so — April aside — it's still one of the highest levels since December 2000, when the BLS started collecting data on quits and vacancies. Meanwhile, 9.2 million jobs are open — about the same as in April..
Consumer Credit
U.S. consumer credit surged in May by the most on record, reflecting a jump in non-revolving loans that underscores solid household spending. Total credit climbed $35.3 billion from the prior month after an upwardly revised $20 billion gain in April, Federal Reserve figures showed Thursday. On an annualized basis, borrowing rose 10% in May. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had called for a $18 billion gain.
US May consumer credit outstanding +$35.28B vs +$18.4B exp. US consumer credit data for May 2021. Prior was +$18.6B. Revolving credit +$9.2B. Non-revolving credit +$26.08B. Non-revolving credit is generally car and student loans. You don't often see huge misses in this data point but it highlights the unpredictable nature of the reopening..
Wholesale Trade (Pre) - Inventories
Wholesale trade improved in May 2021 compared to the same month a year ago and was up slightly from the previous month of April, according to a Friday report by the U.S. Census Bureau. May sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $576.5 billion, up 0.8% from the revised April level and were up 36.8% from the revised May 2020 level. The March 2021 to April 2021 percent change was revised from the preliminary estimate of up 0.8% to up 1.1%. The April 2021 to May 2021 percent change was revised from the advance estimate of up 1.1% to up 1.3%.
Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.8 billion at the end of May, up 1.3% from the revised April level. Total inventories were up 8.2% from the revised May 2020 level. The April 2021 to May 2021 percent change was revised from the advance estimate of up 1.1% to up 1.3%. |
