JOLTS
Job openings rise to new record high in April as US labor shortage slows hiring.US job openings jumped to 9.3 million from 8.3 million in April, setting a new record high. The reading comes in above the median estimate of 8.2 million and marks a fourth straight gain. Roughly 1.1 Americans competed for every opening, down from 1.2 as the labor shortage intensified. Demand for workers in the US intensified in April as nationwide reopening squared off with an unprecedented labor shortage. Job openings rose to a record-high 9.3 million from 8.3 million in April, according to Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, data released Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg held a median estimate of 8.2 million openings. The reading marks a fourth consecutive jump in openings. The report also sheds more light on how the labor market performed through April. The month's nonfarm payrolls report, released in early May, showed hiring drastically slowing as businesses reported difficulties finding workers. The April payroll gains have since been revised slightly higher, and data published last week showed hiring rebound in May. Yet job growth is still down from the pace seen in March despite openings climbing further. Democrats have attributed the slowdown to a push for higher wages, while Republicans largely blame enhanced unemployment insurance.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Inflation
Consumer prices for May accelerated at their fastest pace in nearly 13 years as inflation pressures continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The consumer price index, which represents a basket including food, energy, groceries, housing costs and sales across a spectrum of goods, rose 5% from a year earlier. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a gain of 4.7%. The reading represented the biggest CPI gain since the 5.3% increase in August 2008, just before the financial crisis sent the U.S. spiraling into the worst recession since the Great Depression.
Case Shiller
Home prices in March were 13.2% higher in March, compared with March 2020, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. That’s up from the 12% annual gain in February, and it marks the 10th straight month of accelerating home prices. The March gain is the largest since December 2005 and is one of the largest in the index’s 30-year history. Prices are being pushed higher by incredibly strong competition in the market. High demand is butting up against near record-low supply, resulting in bidding wars for the vast majority of listings. The 10-city composite rose 12.8% year over year, up from 11.7% in the previous month. The 20-city composite increased 13.3%, up from 12% in February.
Consumer Credit
US consumer lending was lower than anticipated. Prior was $25.84B (revised to $18.58B). That's a big miss and an even-bigger revision. My guess is that this reflects people using stimulus payments to pay down debt.
Mortgage Applications
Sky-high home prices mean demand for ever bigger mortgages, but those prices may also be causing a pullback in homebuying overall. Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 4% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Volume was just 2% higher than the same week one year ago, when the housing market was just starting to come back after the pandemic shut it down.
Jobless
Jobless claims declined to a pandemic low last week, a sign companies are hesitant to lay off employees as the U.S. economy quickly recovers. Unemployment claims fell to 376,000 last week from 385,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday, bringing claims to the lowest level since the pandemic hit last spring. Claims remain well above weekly filings of just over 200,000 logged before the pandemic shut down large parts of the economy last March. But they have steadily declined in recent weeks as rising vaccination rates and easing business restrictions spur economic activity.
Treasury Budget
The U.S. government posted a May deficit of $132 billion, about a third of the May 2020 deficit of $399 billion, as higher employment and an earlier tax deadline this year boosted receipts sharply, even as COVID-19 pandemic-related outlays grew, the U.S. Treasury said on Thursday. Receipts for May rose 167% to $464 billion, an increase partly attributed to last year's delay of the Internal Revenue Service income tax filing deadline until July 15. This year's deadline shifted by a month to May 17. The Treasury also said taxes withheld from wages increased by 20% to $204 billion during May compared to a year ago, while May corporate taxes rose to $18 billion from $2 billion last year..
Trade Balance in Goods and Services
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2021. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.9 billion in April, down $6.1 billion from $75.0 billion in March, revised.
Personal Income
A key inflation indicator rose a faster-than-expected 3.1% in April as price pressures built in the rapidly expanding U.S. economy, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The core personal consumption expenditures index was forecast to increase 2.9% after rising 1.9% in March. Federal Reserve officials consider the measure to be the best gauge for inflation, though they watch a number of metrics. The index captures price movements across a variety of goods and services and is generally considered a wider-ranging measure for inflation as it captures changes in consumer behavior and has a broader scope than the Labor Department’s consumer price index. The CPI accelerated 4.2% in April. Over the past month, core PCE rose 0.7 %, also quicker than the expected 0.6%.
Wholesale Trade (Pre)
Wholesale trade improved in April 2021 compared to the same month a year ago and was up from the previous month of March, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. April 2021 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $570.8 billion, up 0.8% from the revised March level and were up 43.6% from the revised April 2020 level. The February 2021 to March 2021 percent change was revised from the preliminary estimate of up 4.6% to up 4.3%. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were $698.0 billion at the end of April, up 0.8% from the revised March level. Total inventories were up 5.2% from the revised April 2020 level. The March 2021 to April 2021 percent change was unrevised from the advance estimate of up 0.8%. The April inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.22. The April 2020 ratio was 1.67.
Consumer Sentiment UM
U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded in early June as inflation fears subsided and households grew more optimistic about future economic growth and employment, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index increased to 86.4 in the first half of this month from a final reading of 82.9 in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising to 84.
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