Week 08-2023 | Rating

Week 08-2023 | Chart

Week 08-2023 | News

10-Year Treasury Yield

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes and assessed the outlook for monetary policy. At 5:35 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up about 1 basis point at 3.964%. It had briefly risen as high as 3.966% earlier in the session, a level last seen in early November.The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at around 4.706%, rising marginally on the day. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

PMI Composite Flash

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Existing Home Sales

U.S. existing home sales dropped to a more than 12-year low in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom. Existing home sales fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units last month, the lowest level since October 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday. That marked the 12th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999. Sales fell in the Northeast and Midwest, but rose in the South and West. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales rising to a rate of 4.10 million units. Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, plunged 36.9% on a year-on-year basis in January. But the worst is probably over. Homebuilders sentiment rose to a five-month high in February, though still depressed. It will, however, be a while before the housing market turns around. Government data last week showed single-family homebuilding and permits for future home construction declining in January. Mortgage rates are rising again, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to an average 6.32% last week from 6.12% the prior week, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. The second straight weekly increase reflected a spike in bond yields after recent strong data on retail sales and inflation raised fears that the Fed could continue raising interest rates through summer.The median existing house price increased 1.3% from a year earlier to $359,000 in January. There were 980,000 previously owned homes on the market, up 2.1% from December and 15.3% from a year ago. At January's sales pace, it would take 2.9 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes up from 1.6 months a year ago. A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand. Properties typically remained on the market for 33 days last month, up from 26 days in December. Fifty-four percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.

MBA Purchase Applications

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FOMC

Fed minutes show members resolved to keep fighting inflation with rate hikes. While the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting concluded with a smaller rate hike than most of those implemented since early 2022, officials stressed that their concern over inflation is high. Inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target, the minutes said. That came with labor markets that “remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices..

Jobless

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Real GDP

U.S. GDP was 2.7% vs. prior 2.9%. Consensus was 2.9%.We are now in a period of low growth and moderating inflation. The big question is how far can inflation come down in that type of environment. It is possible that if supply pressures continue to abate in a period of below-trend growth, inflation will eventually return to the Fed’s target. However, this period of below-trend growth might need to be quite long, which is why the Fed is talking about keeping rates restrictive for an extended period.

Personal Income

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Consumer Spending

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Core CPI

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New Home Sales

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Consumer Sentiment UM

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Fixed Mortgage Rates

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