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Week 46 - 2012
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Week 46 -2012 | From Nov 12 to Nov 16, 2012
   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Nov. 12
Tue - Nov. 13
Wed - Nov. 14
Thu - Nov. 15
Fri - Nov. 16
     
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Economic Data for Week 46-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 46-2012 LAST
Mon Non Reports for Our Global Vision There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday.
N/A
Chart View No Reports  
N/A
Tue ICSC Goldman Index The ICSC-Goldman store sales index is now up 1.8% year over year, better than the 1.4% Y/Y it was up last week, but well worse than the 2.7% Y/Y it was the week prior.
0.7%
W/W
Chart View Sales and Inventories Getting a boost from post-hurricane Sandy restocking in the Northeast, same-store sales rose 0.7% in the November 10 week or Week 45.
Positive View
Tue Johnson Redbook The Redbook store sales index is now up 1.6% year over year, better than the 0.8% Y/Y it was up last week, but below the 1.8% Y/Y it was up the week prior.
1.6%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Sales improved in the November 10 week but still remain soft, which shows a plus 1.6 percent year-on-year rate. The rate is double that of the prior week but is not much better than the very soft four-week average of plus 1.4%.
Positive View
Tue Treasury Budget The federal government started the 2013 budget year with a $120 billion deficit in October, an indication that the nation is on a path to its fifth straight $1 trillion-plus annual deficit.
$-120B
Government A soaring deficit puts added pressure on President Barack Obama and Congress to seek a budget deal in the coming weeks.
Negative View
Wed MBA purchase Applications The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 12.6% in the week ended November 9.
12.6%
W/W
Real Estate Applications for U.S. home mortgages jumped last week, rebounding after a massive storm depressed applications on the East Coast and as a fall in interest rates to a new low spurred demand, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
Positive View
Wed Producer Price Index the Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted producer price index slipped 0.2% last month, the first decline since May, after increasing 1.1% in September. Economists had expected prices at farms, factories, and refineries to increase 0.2% last month.
-0.2%
Chart View Inflation Wholesale prices excluding volatile food and energy costs also fell 0.2%, the largest fall since October 2010, after being flat in September. Economists had expected core PPI to rise 0.1%.
Positive View
Wed Retail Sales Retail sales dipped 0.3% last month after a 1.3% increase in September. U.S. retail sales fell in October by the sharpest amount since June, hurt partly by the effects of hurricane Sandy.
-0.3%
Chart View Sales and Inventories U.S. retail sales fell in October for the first time in three months as super storm Sandy slammed the brakes on automobile purchases, suggesting a loss of momentum in spending early in the fourth quarter.
Negative View
Wed Business Inventories The Commerce Department said on Wednesday inventories increased 0.7% to a record $1.61 trillion, after rising 0.6% in August.
0.7%
Chart View Sales and Inventories U.S. business inventories rose more than expected in September but stocks excluding automobiles were flat for a second month, which could prompt economists to lower their estimates for third-quarter growth.
Positive View
Wed FOMC Minutes #7 Minutes of Fed meeting suggest a new bond-buying program could be unveiled in December The bond purchases would be intended to lower long-term borrowing rates to encourage spending and strengthen the economy. The hope is that more hiring would follow.
N/A
Chart View Interest Rates Minutes of the Fed's Oct. 23-24 policy meeting released Wednesday suggest that it might unveil a bond buying program in December to replace a program that expires at year's end.
Positive View
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Superstorm Sandy drove a surge in new claims for U.S. jobless benefits last week and hurt factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region in November, signs it could deal a substantial blow to economic growth in the fourth quarter.
439K
Employment Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 78,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000, the highest level since April 2011, the Labor Department said on Thursday. It was the biggest one-week jump since a spike caused by Hurricane Katrina in September 2005.
Negative View
Thu Consumer Price Index CPI (inflation) data came in line exactly as economists expected. The fact that economists got it right for a change is bigger news than the CPI.
0.1%
Chart View Consumer The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that in October the consumer price index rose 0.1%, a smaller increase than the 0.6% seen in September
Neutral View
Thu Empire State Mfg Survey Empire State (NY) Manufacturing Survey showed contraction again at -5.22, but was fairly close to expectations of -5.00. Despite the gain, this is still a reading indicating economic contraction, and is the 4th such reading in a row now.
-5.22
Chart View Manufacturing The New York Fed reports in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey that the general business conditions index is -5.22 in November, an improvement to October�s -6.16.
Negative View
Thu Philadelphia Fed Survey The Philly Fed Survey measures manufacturing in the Philly area, which was not seriously affected by the hurricane; however, its results were very bad, again.
-10.7
Level
Chart View Business Activity In contrast to the Empire State report, Hurricane Sandy definitely had a major impact on manufacturing data from the Philly Fed. Instead of coming in at the consensus� +4.5, it was a horrendous reading of -10.7.
Negative View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) today reported the U.S. natural gas stocks declined by a total of 18 billion cubic feet, more than the 14 billion cubic feet decline that analysts were expecting. Natural gas futures prices were less than 1% higher in advance of the EIA�s report at around $3.78 per thousand cubic feet, and rose to around $3.80 immediately following the EIA report.
-18 bcf
Commodity Natural-gas futures for December delivery NGZ12 +1.11% rose 0.5% to $3.72 per million British thermal units. Natural gas in storage fell 18 billion cubic feet in the November 9 week to 3,911 bcf.
Thu EIA Crude Oil Report Crude-oil inventories showed a build of 1.1 million barrels last week, but this was lower than expected, leading to a slight bounce in [Nymex crude futures] prices  
Chart View Commodity Crude-oil futures traded a touch lower during electronic trading Friday, helped by mild gains for the dollar.  
Thu Fed Balance Sheet The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet rose slightly over the past week, as the central bank continued with its easy-money policy.�
-8.4B
Government The Fed's asset holdings in the week ended Nov. 14 edged up to $2.879 trillion, from $2.832 trillion a week earlier, it said in a weekly report released Thursday. Thursday's report showed total borrowing from the Fed's discount lending window was $1.02 billion Wednesday, down from $1.17 billion a week earlier.�
Neutral View
Thu M2 Money Supply  
$-1.9B
Money Supply  
Neutral View
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates Lenders were offering fixed-rate 30-year home loans to solid borrowers at an average of 3.34% this week, the latest in a series of record low mortgage rates, according to home finance giant Freddie Mac.
3.34%
Chart View Interest Rates The typical rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage of 2.65% with 0.7% in lender fees also was a record, a notch below the previous record low of 2.66% in mid-October.
Positive View
Fri Treasury Intal Capital Japan continued to threaten China's position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys in September, while net sales of Treasurys by private foreigners hit a record high, the Treasury Department said Friday.
$3.3B
Chart View Balance of Payments Overall, foreigners were net buyers of long-term U.S. securities in September, according to the monthly Treasury International Capital report, known as TIC.
Negative View
Fri Industrial Production The Federal Reserve reports that industrial production declined 0.4% in October following a 0.2% gain in September. The industrial production index (2007=100) is now at 96.6 compared to 97.0 last month
-0.4%
Chart View Business Actvity Industrial Production Declined 0.4% In October. U.S. industrial output unexpectedly fell in October as superstorm Sandy disrupted production, but the underlying tone remained consistent with slowing manufacturing activity.
Negative View
Fri E-Commerce Sales U.S. e-commerce sales reached $56.99 billion, says the U.S. Department of Commerce. Third quarter 2011 e-commerce sales increased 3.7% from $54.94 billion in the second quarter, according to the department�s seasonally adjusted estimates.
3.91%
Chart View Sales and Inventories U.S. e-commerce sales reached $56.99 billion in the third quarter, up 17.3% from $48.59 billion for the same period a year ago, according to figures released today by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Positive View
     
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WEEK 46-2012
ECONOMIC REPORTS Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 46-2012
01. Interest Rates
Non Available
 
02. Growth
Non Available
 
03. Inflation
Non Available
Wholesale prices drop due to lower gas prices
04. Employment
Non Available
 
05. Real Estate
Non Available
 
06. Manufacturing
Non Available
 
07. Consumer
Non Available
 
08. Sales & Inventories
Non Available
U.S. retail sales dip in October
09. Business Activity
Non Available
 
10. Government
Non Available
GROWING U.S. DEBT: Fed deficit $120 billion in October
11. Balance of Payments
Non Available
 
12. Money Supply
Non Available
 
13. Banking System
Non Available
 
REPORTS WEEK 46-2012
0
0
0
Non Available
 
MARKET CORRELATION Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 46 -2012
01. Commodities
Non Available
Oil and Natural Gas: Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
02. Bond Market
Non Available
If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
03. S&P 500 Index
Non Available
Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
04. U.S. Dollar and FX
Non Available
If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.
05. Major Economies
Non Available
Bond and stock prices are both influenced by Major Economies like China.
TOTAL WEEK 46-2012
0
0
0
Non Available
Week 46, 2012 has been rated...
   
         
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LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 46-2012 ENDING NOV. 16
Reports Commentary

The retail sales report offered an early read on the storm's impact on the economy. Its full impact will likely be felt in the November data.

Store sales in the U.S. recovered some this week, but remain in a downward trend. Last week’s sales took a plunge, as many shoppers were traveling or contained indoors in the aftermath of hurricane Sandy.

The Treasury Department said Tuesday that the October deficit � the gap between the government’s tax revenue and its spending � was 22 percent higher than the same month last year.

The deficit, in simplest terms, is the amount of money the government has to borrow when revenues fall short of expenses. The government ran a $1.1 trillion annual budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended in September. That was lower than the previous year but still painfully high by historical standards.

Other data on Wednesday showed little inflation, with wholesale prices falling in October for the first time since May, giving the U.S. Federal Reserve latitude to maintain its ultra easy monetary policy stance to nurse the economy back to health. Wholesale prices in the U.S. posted the biggest decline in October in more than a year and a half, mostly because of lower costs of gasoline and motor vehicles.

The benign tone of the producer price inflation report should give the Fed room to keep its low interest rate environment. Consumer inflation is currently hovering around the Fed's 2 percent target.

The U.S. central bank in September launched a third round of asset purchases, committing to buy $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities every month until there is a sustained improvement in the labor market. It hopes the purchases will drive down borrowing costs.

Inventories in September were lifted by a 0.9 percent rise in stocks at auto dealers. Auto inventories had increased 1.2 percent in August.

Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. Inventories, excluding autos � which go into the calculation of gross domestic product � were flat for a second straight month.

The Fed's portfolio has tripled since the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 as the central bank bought government bonds and mortgage-backed securities in an effort to keep interest rates low and to stimulate the economy.�
In September the Fed began buying $40 billion a month of additional mortgage-backed securities on an open-ended basis. Fed officials have said that they plan to continue buying bonds until the labor market improves significantly.�

       
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S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (ES)
MARKET PROFILE WEEK 46-2012 ENDING NOV 16
     
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MARKET PROFILE
Levels WEEKS 2012 WEEK 46 % FROM CLOSE % FROM OPEN
RESISTANCE 1
RESISTANCE 2
CLOSE MAR 02
OPEN MAR 04
SUPPORT 1
SUPPORT 2
         
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