Week 34-2026 | Rating

Week 34-2026 | Chart

Week 34-2026 | Brief News

10-Year Treasury Yield

The S&P 500 is near record highs, while the market is balancing softer inflation/rate expectations against geopolitical and growth risks.
The #1 thing to watch: Iran/Hormuz + oil

This could completely override technical signals.

If oil falls and there is progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz → bullish S&P 500.

If oil suddenly jumps because negotiations deteriorate → reduce long exposure.

This is particularly important because higher energy prices can bring inflation back and make the Fed less willing to cut rates.

Wednesday, Aug. 19 — MOST IMPORTANT DAY

FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM ET.

This is the event I would circle on your calendar.

The July meeting was unusual because three Fed officials wanted a rate hike, while the committee kept rates at 3.50%–3.75%.

If minutes sound dovish:

Fed less worried about inflation → yields down → Nasdaq/S&P potentially strongly bullish.

If minutes sound hawkish:

More officials concerned about inflation → yields up → Nasdaq vulnerable.

I would avoid entering a large new position immediately before 2 PM ET.

The biggest warning

If oil spikes + Treasury yields rise + S&P breaks its previous day's low, I would immediately become much more defensive.

That combination would tell me that inflation/geopolitical risk is beginning to overwhelm the bullish Fed/earnings story.

Bottom line for Aug. 17–21: 🟢 cautiously bullish, but expect volatility around Wednesday's FOMC minutes and any Iran/Hormuz developments.

Week 34-2026 | Disclosure

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