10-Year Treasury Yield
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield moved higher on Monday as investor worries around the Federal Reserve’s independence spurred volatility in the stock market and following the 10-year auction. The 10-year Treasury yield was up more than 1 basis point at 4.187%. The 30-year bond yield increased more than a basis point to 4.836%.
US Dollar Index
The dollar fell on Monday after the U.S. Department of Justice threatened to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over comments to Congress about a building renovation project, raising concerns about the independence of the U.S. central bank and the long-term outlook for the currency.
Consumer Price Index CPI
Based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on January 13, 2026, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) increased 2.7% over the last 12 months, with the index for all items rising 0.3% in December 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The core CPI (less food and energy) rose 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually. The consumer price index rose 2.7% in December 2025 from 12 months earlier, unchanged from November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is also somewhat difficult to decipher due to distortions caused by the recent government shutdown, they said.
New Home Sales
For Sep.2025 738K. For Oct 2025 737K. New home sales for October 2025 (released Jan 13, 2026) were 737,000, a slight 0.1% decline from the revised 738,000 in September 2025. This indicates a stable, high-demand market, up 18.7% year-over-year. The median sales price fell to \(\$392,300\), continuing a trend of lower prices, with 488,000 new homes for sale at the end of October. US new home sales fall marginally in October. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell slightly in October after increasing for two straight months, though declining prices amid still-elevated inventory could support the new housing market this year. New home sales slipped 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 737,000 units, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Sales increased to a rate of 738,000 units in September from 711,000 in August. The data was delayed by the 43-day shutdown of the government.
Treasury Budget
The U.S. Treasury reported a $602 billion deficit for the first three months of FY 2026, including a $145 billion deficit in December 2025, driven by rising interest costs on national debt. Total outlays hit a record $1.827 trillion, with interest payments increasing 15% to $355 billion. US posts record $145 billion December deficit as outlays outpace receipts. The U.S. government posted a $145 billion budget deficit for December, up 67% or $58 billion from a year earlier due to record outlays that were inflated by calendar shifts in benefit payments and receipts, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday. The report showed that revenue growth from President Donald Trump's tariffs may have plateaued, as December net customs receipts totaled $27.9 billion, down from the low $30 billion range in recent months but far above the $6.8 billion recorded in December 2024.
Crypto World Bitcoin
The boldest bitcoin predictions for 2026 are in — from $75,000 to $225,000. After an all-time high and a big tumble for bitcoin last year, industry executives and investors told CNBC that the cryptocurrency could reach new heights in 2026 — but with the potential for huge volatility. In CNBC’s annual roundup of bitcoin predictions, several commentators forecast a wide range of prices for bitcoin in 2026, dropping as low as $75,000 and rising as high as $225,000.
MBA Mortgage Applications
Mortgage refinance demand surges 40% higher after Trump post briefly tanks interest rates. For the whole week, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, decreased to 6.18% from 6.25%. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home increased 16% for the week and were 13% higher than the same week one year ago.
Producer Price Index
For Nov. 2025 0.2% and Y/y 3.0%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November 2025 showed an increase of 0.2 percent in final demand prices. This increase was primarily driven by a 0.9 percent rise in prices for final demand goods, while prices for final demand services remained unchanged. On an unadjusted basis, the PPI rose 3.0 percent for the 12 months ending in November 2025.
Retail Sales
For Nov. 2025 06%. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November as motor vehicle purchases rebounded and households boosted spending elsewhere, suggesting the economy maintained its strong pace of growth in the fourth quarter. Economists, however, worried that the solid retail sales growth reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday continued to be driven by wealthy households, with lower-income consumers disproportionately impacted by higher prices for basic commodities like food because of President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs.
Current Account
For Q3:2025 $-226.4B. The U.S. current-account deficit narrowed by $22.8 billion, or 9.2%, to $226.4 billion in the third quarter of 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (.gov). This represents 2.9% of current-dollar GDP, down from 3.3% in Q2. The narrowing was driven by an improved primary income balance, increased service surpluses, and reduced goods deficits.
Existing Home Sales
For Dec.2025 4.35 M. Existing home sales end 2025 with a strong beat, as prices ease further. Sales of previously owned homes in December rose to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate of 4.35 million units, a 5.1% increase from November, according to the National Association of Realtors. That was higher than analysts’ expectations for a gain of 2%. Sales were 1.4% higher than a year earlier. For the full year, there were 4.06 million existing home sales, unchanged from 2024.
Business Inventories
For Oct. 2025 0.3% M/M. U.S. business inventories in October 2025 rose 0.3% to a total of $2,677.8 billion, matching the revised increase from September and slightly exceeding market expectations. Retailer inventories led the growth, increasing 0.6%, while wholesale inventories rose 0.2% and manufacturing inventories remained flat. Total business sales fell 0.2% in October, leading to a slight uptick in the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.38.
EIA Crude Oil Report
In our January 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production next year will remain near the record 13.6 million barrels per day (b/d) produced in 2025 before decreasing 2% to 13.3 million b/d in 2027. If realized, a fall in annual U.S. crude oil production will mark the first since 2021
Beige Book
Fed survey suggests slight upgrade to US economy. Economic activity increased in most parts of the U.S. and employment was mostly unchanged in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in a report that may do little to sway policymakers' interest rate views ahead of the central bank's meeting in two weeks. "Outlooks for future activity were mildly optimistic with most expecting slight to modest growth in coming months," the Fed said in its latest "Beige Book" report, a compendium of survey results, interviews, and other qualitative data from its 12 regional banks.
Hedging Gold
Gold surged to a record high, with silver rising in its wake, on Wednesday as geopolitical and economic uncertainties drove investors toward safe-haven assets, while expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts added further momentum. Spot gold was 1.1% higher at $4,635.39 per ounce, after earlier hitting a record high. U.S. gold futures for February delivery rose 1% to $4,644.20. News
Jobless Initial Claims
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, but the drop was likely due to ongoing challenges adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around this time of the year. Weekly US jobless claims fall unexpectedly, but labor market treading water
Retail Sales
Report Delayed due to the government shut down,.
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index
For Jan. 2026 Actual 12.6. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January 2026 showed a significant, unexpected rebound, with the index for general business activity jumping to 12.6, up from a revised -8.8 in December 2025. This reading far exceeded market expectations, which had anticipated continued contraction, and marks the highest level for the index since September 2025.
Empire State Mfg Index
For Jan. 2026 Actual 7.7. The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State Manufacturing Index for January 2026 jumped to 7.7, reversing from -3.7 in December and exceeding forecasts, indicating a moderate expansion in regional manufacturing activity. New orders and shipments increased, while future outlooks remained optimistic.
Imports and Exports Prices
For. Nov. 2025 0.1% and 3.3%. In November 2025, international import and export price trends showed varying results across regions. U.S. import prices increased by 0.1% for the month, with a 3.3% rise in export prices over the year. Conversely, German import prices decreased by 1.9% annually, while export prices increased by 0.3%. Czech Republic data showed a 0.3% monthly decrease in export prices and a 0.1% decrease in import prices.
Fed Balance Sheet
Total Assets W/W $ 8.098 B.
Mortgage Rates
President Donald Trump posted on social media late Thursday that, in an effort to lower mortgage rates, he would order mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed bonds. Just on that news, the average rate on the 30-year fixed sunk briefly below 6% on Friday morning before bouncing slightly higher again, according to Mortgage News Daily. For the whole week, on the MBA’s survey, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, decreased to 6.18% from 6.25%, with points falling to 0.56 from 0.57, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.
Industrial Production
For Dec. 2025 Actual 0.4%. Industrial production showed resilience late in 2025 and early 2026, with U.S. output rising 0.4% in December, exceeding expectations, while Spain experienced a 4.5% year-on-year surge. Euro area production grew 0.8% in October 2025. Key trends include strong AI-driven electronics production, rebounding capital goods, and fluctuating energy output.
Housing Market Index HMI
For Jan 2026 Actual 37. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for January 2026 fell two points to 37, signaling a decline in builder confidence and the weakest reading in three months. This drop, which missed the expected 40.0, was driven by high financing costs, elevated material prices, and weak demand, with 40% of builders cutting prices.
S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 Index ended -0.06%. Negative.
VIX Volatility Index
VIX ende -0.26% which is Positive.
Geopolitical Risk
Trump says US is making moves to acquire Greenland 'whether they like it or not'. |
