What are Geopolitical Risks?

Geopolitical risks—the threat, realization, and escalation of adverse events associated with wars, terrorism, and interstate tensions—are currently elevated, driven by major conflicts, strategic competition, and economic fragmentation.

Top Geopolitical Risks 2025–2026

Intensifying US-China Strategic Competition: Technology, particularly AI and quantum computing, is driving a technological decoupling, creating distinct, competing blocs. Despite efforts to manage relations, tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea remain high, with potential for further trade restrictions.

Persistently Dangerous Middle East: Regional conflicts, particularly stemming from the war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, continue to threaten energy infrastructure, supply chains, and key shipping bottlenecks, such as the Red Sea.

Russia-NATO Conflict: The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a major source of instability, with risks of further escalation beyond its borders.

Global Trade Protectionism & Fragmentation: The world is shifting toward a more fragmented trading environment, with protectionist measures and "de-risking" strategies in critical sectors like semiconductors, energy, and food.

Major Cyber Attacks: Increasing digitization, combined with geopolitical rivalries, has fueled a surge in sophisticated cyber warfare targeting critical physical and digital infrastructure.

Emerging Market Instability: Increased global fragmentation and economic pressures are causing social unrest and political crises in several emerging markets.

Climate Change & Resource Competition: Droughts, water scarcity, and food insecurity are increasing, contributing to operational disruptions and potential conflict