10-Year Treasury Yield
U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors analyzed the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the U.S. economy. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up less than 1 basis point to 4.183%, while the 2-year Treasury yield ticked down nearly 2 basis points to 3.645%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield was up less 1 basis point at 4.758%.
Chicago Fed Nat Acitivy Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to negative 0.12 in August from a downwardly revised reading of negative 0.28 in July, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Expectations were for a rise to negative 0.17. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.12 in August from –0.28 in July. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from July, but three categories made negative contributions in August. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.18 in August from –0.20 in July.
US Dollar Index
The U.S. dollar gained against peers including the yen, Swiss franc and euro on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing overnight.The dollar strengthened 0.54% to 0.795 against the Swiss franc , on track to snap two consecutive sessions of losses.
Current Account
The U.S. current account deficit contracted by the most on record in the second quarter as a flood of imports subsided. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Tuesday the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, decreased by a record $188.5 billion, or 42.9%, to $251.3 billion, reversing the prior month's jump.
PMI Mfg Flash
Flash US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52 in September 2025. US business activity lost momentum in September, according to the flash reading of S&P Global’s Composite PMI, which ticked down to 53.6 from 54.6 in August. The index, where any reading above 50 indicates expansion, points to a private sector that seems to be struggling to strengthen furt
Money Supply
Recent money supply news shows a significant resurgence, particularly in the U.S., where the M2 money supply has reached a record high and is growing at its fastest pace in years. This trend indicates increasing liquidity and is considered a supportive factor for the stock market. However, analysts and central bankers are closely monitoring its growth for potential inflationary pressures, with the Federal Reserve balancing ample liquidity against price stability goals.The increased money supply provides ample liquidity, which often translates into a boost for stock prices, including record highs in the S&P 500.
Crypto World Bitcoin
The price of bitcoin, the world's largest and best-known cryptocurrency , fell below $110,000 Thursday evening, down more than 5% for the week and more than 10% off its August all-time high over $124,000. Altcoins like ether and solana also slid, dragging the estimated total value of the crypto market under $4 trillion.
MBA Mortage Application
On September 24, 2025, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that mortgage applications increased for the third straight week, although the gains were "meager" and followed a period of elevated demand due to falling rates. Despite a stall in demand after a "mini refinance boom," the overall activity showed continued strengthening in the mortgage market.
New Home Sales
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes surged to the highest level in more than 3-1/2 years in August, but that likely exaggerates the housing market's health, and a weakening labor market could limit the boost from falling mortgage rates. New home sales jump 20.5% in August to 800 K; July sales pace revised up. The bigger-than-expected increase in sales last month reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday was shrugged off by economists, who noted that new housing data was extremely volatile and subject to revisions. They also said the jump in sales was at odds with subdued homebuilder sentiment.
EIA Crude Oil Report
Oil prices climbed about 3% to a seven-week high on Wednesday as a surprise drop in U.S. weekly crude inventories added to a sense in the market of tightening supplies amid export issues in Iraq, Venezuela and Russia. Brent futures rose $1.68, or 2.5%, to settle at $69.31 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.58, or 2.5%, to settle at $64.99.
Hedging Gold
Gold prices eased on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar firmed, retreating from a record high scaled in the previous session, while investors hunkered down for economic data due later in the week for further cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,734.58 per ounce, as of 01:56 p.m. ET (1756 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,790.82 on Tuesday.
Jobless Initial Claims
Jobless claims tumble to 218,000, well below estimate despite fears of labor market weakness. Jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the consensus estimate for 235,000.Gross domestic product posted a gain of 3.8% in the second quarter, up half a percentage point from the prior estimate due to an upward revision to consumer spending. Spending on long-lasting items such as airplanes, appliances and computers increased 2.9% in August, compared with the forecast for a decline of 0.4%
GDP
The U.S. economy grew at a strong 3.8% annualized pace in the second quarter, the government reported Thursday in its final revision of gross domestic product data for April through June. U.S. GDP — the nation's output of goods and services — rebounded in the spring from a 0.6% first-quarter drop caused by fallout from President Donald Trump's trade wars, the Commerce Department said. The department had previously estimated second-quarter growth at 3.3%, and forecasters had expected a repeat of that figure. Consumer spending buoyed the economy in the second quarter, rising at a 2.5% pace, up from 0.6% in the first quarter and well above the 1.6% the government previously estimated. The data provides evidence that Americans continued to open their wallets despite broader economic headwinds such as tariffs and a slowing job market, economists noted.
Durable Goods
Demand for U.S. durable goods recovered after two months of declines, driven by a surge in orders for military and civilian aircraft. Total orders for durable goods—which include transportation equipment as well as goods like computers and metal products—rose 2.9% on month in August 2025, having fallen back over the previous two months, data from the Commerce Department showed Thursday.
Intal Trade in Goods (Adv)
U.S. trade in goods shows the August 2025 trade deficit narrowed to $85.5 billion from $102.8 billion in July, with both exports and imports decreasing, according to Census.gov. This follows a July deficit that was larger than expected, attributed to increased imports of industrial supplies and capital goods, potentially due to inventory stockpiling before new tariffs. New tariffs affecting countries like India, Brazil, South Africa, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea were implemented in August 2025, impacting trade discussions and leading to ongoing negotiations.
Corporate Profits
Corporate Profits in Nonfinancial Industries Plunge by Most Ever in $, amid Massive Downward Revisions. The measure of corporate profits here are pre-tax profits “from current production” (more on what that means in a moment) by businesses of all sizes that have to file corporate tax returns, including LLCs and S corporations, plus some organizations that do not file corporate tax returns. The data are not based on surveys but on administrative data, such as corporate tax data from the IRS and from financial statements filed with the SEC. Corporate profits in the United States fell by 3.3% from the previous period to $3.204 trillion in the first quarter of 2025.
Retail Inventories Adv
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Wholesale Inventories Adv
In August 2025, the value of U.S. wholesale inventories, adjusted for seasonal factors, was an estimated $905.2 billion. This represented a 0.2% decrease from the previous month and a 0.7% increase compared to August 2024. The decline in inventories was unexpected by many analysts, with some suggesting it could be a positive signal for the U.S. dollar due to increased consumer spending.
Existing Home Sales
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes ticked lower in August amid affordability issues for buyers thanks to still-pricey homes on the market and interest rates on mortgages that remain relatively steep despite recent drops in borrowing costs. Home sales slipped 0.2% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units from an unrevised 4.01 million in July, the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would slip slightly further, to 3.96 million units. Sales rose 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.
Fed Balance Sheet
On September 25, 2025, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was reported at $6.608 trillion, slightly down from the prior week. This reduction occurred alongside a seventh consecutive weekly drop in bank reserves to below $3 trillion, signaling continued liquidity drain from the system.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates declined as the Federal Reserve prepared to resume easing monetary policy. The U.S. central bank cut its benchmark overnight interest rate last week by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% target. The Fed projected a steady pace of reductions for the rest of 2025.The rate on the popular 30-year mortgage dropped to an 11-month low of 6.26% last week, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. It has been edging lower since mid-July and is down from around 7.04% in mid-January.
Core PCE
Core inflation rate held at 2.9% in August, as expected, Fed’s gauge shows.The core personal consumption expenditures price index showed inflation in August at 2.9% on an annual basis after rising 0.2% for the month. Both were in line with estimates.Though the Fed targets inflation at 2%, the readings are unlikely to change course for policymakers who indicated they see two more quarter percentage point reductions before the end of the year.
Personal Income
Personal income increased 0.4% for the month, while personal consumption expenditures accelerated at a 0.6% pace. Both were 0.1 percentage point above the respective estimates. The headline annual inflation rate was a slight increase from the 2.6% in July while the core rate was the same.
Consumer Spending PCE
Spending and income numbers were slightly higher than expected. Personal consumption expenditures accelerated at a 0.6% pace. Though the Fed targets inflation at 2%, the readings are unlikely to change course for policymakers who last week indicated they see two more quarter percentage point reductions before the end of the year.
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