10-Year Treasury Yield
U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors considered the state of the economy and looked ahead to key economic data slated for this week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was almost 4 basis points higher at 4.219%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last up by more than 7 basis points at 4.61%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point equals 0.01%.
PMI Composite Final
The S&P Global US Composite PMI was revised higher to 52.5 in February 2024, from the preliminary estimate of 51.4 and up from 52 in January. It was the highest reading since June 2023, as manufacturing production saw a boost while service sector activity also rose. New order growth slightly slowed, though the overall expansion rate was the second highest since mid-2023. The upturn was supported by a rise in new export orders for goods. February showed a general decrease in cost pressures, with input prices increasing at the slowest rate since October 2020. Despite this, firms aimed to pass on higher costs to customers, resulting in an uptick in selling price inflation from January. Total employment growth remained modest at the start of the first quarter, with manufacturers increasing hiring while service providers showed restrained job creation due to cost-cutting measures and labor shortages.
Gold
Gold does well when other assets — and the world, are in trouble. And so even those who join the rally should do so with caution, and root against the yellow metal, experts say. Earlier this week, the gold contract for April gained $30.60, or 1.46%, to settle at $2,126.30 per ounce, the highest level dating back to the contract’s creation in 1974. On Wednesday, the metal was trading at $2,158.40. The safe-haven asset has risen for two consecutive months amid ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the upcoming presidential election, and uncertainty around interest rates and inflation. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently warned of nuclear conflict and “the destruction of civilization” if other countries sent group troops into Ukraine. Meanwhile, experts are concerned that Donald Trump would try to pull the U.S. out of NATO if he was reelected, which could raise security risks across the world.
Factory Orders
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ISM Services
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MBA Purchase Applications
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ADP -
Private payrolls rose by 140,000 in February, less than expected. Private sector job growth improved during February though growth was slightly less than expected, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added 140,000 positions for the month, an increase from the upwardly revised 111,000 in January but a bit below the Dow Jones estimate for 150,000. Job gains came across multiple areas, led by leisure and hospitality with 41,000 and construction, which added 28,000 positions. Other industries showing solid gains included trade, transportation and utilities (24,000), finance (17,000), and the other services category (14,000).
JOLTS
Job openings stay at 8.9 million — showing lots of demand for labor.Job openings are higher now than they were before the pandemic The numbers: The number of job openings in the U.S. stayed at 8.9 million for the third month in a row, suggesting the demand for labor remains quite robust. Federal Reserve officials want to see the labor market cool off further as they prepare to reduce interest rates later this year. A tight labor market can exacerbate inflation.The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings fell marginally in January, while hiring declined as labor market conditions continued to gradually ease. "The number of job openings shriveled a bit, but are still quite healthy and indicative of a labor market that is still looking pretty stout," said Luschini. "It fits the Goldilocks narrative that's become consensus."
Wholeslsae Prev
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Beige Book
Wall Street's three major indexes rose on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced expectations that the U.S. central bank would reduce its benchmark interest rate this year. Powell said on Wednesday he still expected the Fed to cut rates and that the U.S. economy appeared nowhere near a recession although he shied away from committing to a timetable for rate cuts as progress on inflation was not assured.
Fed’s Beige Book says U.S. economy picked up speed while inflation, labor market cooled. The U.S. economy accelerated slightly in early 2024, a Federal Reserve survey found, noting that the outlook for the rest of the year was ”generally positive.” The latest findings by the so-called Beige Book dovetail with comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Powell told Congress a few hours before the report that “what we are seeing so far this year is continued solid growth.” US Economic Activity Increasing Slightly, Fed’s Beige Book Shows Consumer spending, notably on merchandise, ‘inched down’ Businesses are having a harder time passing on higher costs. The US economy has expanded at a modest pace since earlier in the year, while consumers showed more sensitivity to rising prices, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. “Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change and one district noting a slight softening,” according to the report released Wednesday.
Jobless Claims
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Intal Trade Goods and Servixces
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Prodcutivty and Costa
Q4 2023: U.S. Nonfarm Productivity Soars, Fed Eyes Moderate Costs for Rate Strategy. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Nonfarm Business Sector Labor Productivity saw an impressive increase of 3.2%, with output rising by 3.5% and hours worked by a modest 0.3%. This improvement in productivity, particularly over a year-on-year basis where a 2.6% increase was recorded, demonstrates a resilient and efficient labor market.
Consumer Credti -
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Mortgage Rates
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non Farm Payroll
U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. Job creation topped expectations in February, but the unemployment rate moved higher and employment growth from the previous two months wasn’t nearly as hot as initially reported. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payroll growth of 198,000. February was a step higher in growth from January, which saw a steep downward revision to 229,000, from the initially reported 353,000. Job growth in December also was revised down to 290,000 from 333,000, bringing the two-month total to 167,000 fewer jobs than initially reported.
Unemployment Rate
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